🎓 CFB PROPS · COMING SEPTEMBER 2026

College Football Player Props Passing yards · Rushing yards · Receiving yards · Anytime TD

Bill Connelly's SP+ as the team-level base, layered with portal-transfer adjustments and tempo-aware usage projections. The smaller market means books trade these softer than NFL props — and that's exactly where the edge lives.

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Passing Yards

QB rate × expected attempts × tempo × opp pass defense. Tempo-up offenses (Tennessee, Oregon) inflate every QB's projection.

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Rushing Yards

RB rate × snap share × game script (favored teams run more late) × opp run defense. Mobile QB rushing rolled into a separate market.

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Receiving Yards

WR target share × air yards per target × matchup. Slot WRs against zone-heavy defenses tilt over the line consistently.

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Anytime TD Scorer

Goal-line snap share + redzone usage + game-script Poisson. Workhorse backs against bad rush defenses = textbook edge.

Why CFB props are exploitable: Books staff their CFB props teams smaller than NFL because the markets get less action. That means slower line moves on real news (a starter's mom is sick, beat reporter buries an injury). We've been tracking the gap closely — CFB prop closing-line value typically beats NFL by 3-5pp.

Timeline:
• Aug 20: Closed beta — Top-25 teams only, 3 markets
• Aug 30 (Week 1): Public launch · full FBS coverage
• Oct 1: Anytime TD scorer + alt lines
• Bowl Season: Postseason-only model variant (opt-outs everywhere)