Bad Bets
Free sports betting picks · MLB · NFL · NBA · CFB

Where the market
and the math
disagree.

Bad Bets runs a math model on every game and surfaces the bets where the sportsbook line is off. Every pick goes public. Every result gets graded. It's all free — no upsell, no Discord paywall.

See tonight's picks → How it works
1

We crunch the numbers

Every morning at 6 AM, our model rates every MLB, NFL, NBA, and CFB game using pitcher form, bullpen rest, weather, park factors, umpire bias, and a dozen other signals.

2

We flag the mispriced games

When our model strongly disagrees with the sportsbook's line — say, we think a team should be favored but the book has them as the dog — that's an edge. We publish it.

3

You decide if you want in

Free picks every morning on the site, Telegram, and Discord. We don't take bets — you bet wherever you already do. Every result gets graded publicly so you can see if we're actually beating the books or just lucky.

See tonight's picks → View our track record
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Tonight's edges Every game we think the book got wrong, ranked by edge
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See our track record Public hit rate, calibration curve, no cherry-picking
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Watch live Score + win-prob tracker for every game on tonight's slate
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Get the app Add Bad Bets to your home screen — iOS + Android, free
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Free morning drop Today's picks straight to Telegram, no signup — @badbetsdaily
NFL
Kickoff in … · fantasy leagues open now · picks at Week 1
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MLB
Tonight
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MLB games
Today's locks
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our biggest disagreements with Vegas
NFL kickoff
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until Week 1
This week Full schedule →
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The hub live now

What's happening right this second — games in progress with our pick highlighted, today's most-tailed picks across the community, and news stories that actually move betting lines.

MLB · happening now Live board →
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🔥 Trending picks 24h
📰 News
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Recent chatter community

What other Bad Bets users are saying about today's slate. Join the conversation or just lurk — both are fine.

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The receipts MLB · 2026

How the model is actually doing this season — hit rate, average edge, best and worst stretches. No cherry-picking, no curated screenshots.

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Today's top MLB edges

The four games where our model disagrees most with the sportsbook tonight. Tap any card to see why we like it, who's pitching, and the price across 20+ books.
"Edge" = how mispriced we think the line is. +5% edge means we think that bet is worth 5 cents on every dollar wagered.

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See all today's picks →

Recent MLB results

Yesterday's and the last few days' picks, graded. Green means we cashed, red means we missed. Every result, no hiding the losses.

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See full ledger →

Explore by sport live across MLB / NFL / NBA / CFB

Bad Bets covers four sports, each with its own model. MLB is fully live now. NFL, NBA, and CFB are in beta and ship in full with their seasons.

MLB LIVE · v0.8

⚾ MLB picks + props

Daily moneyline edges with momentum, bullpen fatigue, umpire signals. Player props on HR, hits, K's.

Today →LivePropsLedger
NFL Beta · v0.2

🏈 NFL picks + props

QB-EPA + line movement game model. Player props (passing/rushing/receiving) launching Week 1, September 2026.

Hub →TodayProps previewLeagues
NBA Beta · v0.1

🏀 NBA picks + props

Pace-adjusted ratings with star availability layer. Player props (PTS/REB/AST/3PM) live opening night 2026-27.

Hub →TodayProps previewStats
CFB Beta · v0.1

🎓 CFB picks + props

SP+ blend with portal-transfer + continuity adjustments. Player props launching Week 1, September 2026.

Hub →TodayPortalProps preview
FREE

💬 Join the Discord

Daily morning slate drop, the model's top picks, and live community reactions while games go. No paywall, no upsell — just a place to hang out and watch the bets play out.

Join the Discord →
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📱 Install the app

Bad Bets as a real phone app via Add to Home Screen. Works offline for tickets + ledger. Push notifications for slate drops + cashed picks. iOS · Android · Desktop — same install in 30 seconds.

Install Bad Bets →